Archive for the ‘stock’ tag

How You Can Perform An IPO Valuation   no comments

Posted at 7:17 am in Business

Are you wondering which portions of the current stock market are the best areas of the market to place your capital into? If you are wondering which portions of the current market you should invest into, look into what is known as an IPO. An IPO is an initial public offering. An initial public offering is the first step a company must take in order to be represented on an open stock exchange. Before you can purchase an IPO though, you should perform an IPO valuation in order to guarantee you are purchasing investments that are worth your capital.

As you can see, the initial evaluation process you must perform when you are purchasing an IPO is definitely the most important action you can take when you are first investing into this realm the stock market. The first aspect you should look into as you are investing into an IPO is the amount of assets the company has within its balance sheet compared to the amount of debt the company owes.

The best situation you can find a company in is a situation where they have more assets than debt. If you can find a company that is selling to the open market with assets that are worth more than its debt, you can be certain that the company is at least stable to a degree at the current moment. If you can find a company that is selling below the value of the difference between the assets and the debt of the company, you are purchasing a dollar at the price of $. 50 due to this difference.

As you probably already know, you should also investigate a variety of other factors that can be highly relevant to the value of an IPO investment. One of the most important aspects of an IPO investment is the amount of income the company is bringing in relative to the value of any expenses it maintains. If you invest into a company that has me more expenses than income, the company is in an unstable financial situation, which is certainly an investment you should stay away from. If the company is making more than their current expenses are charging their bank accounts, they are a profitable investment.

One of the easiest ways to evaluate whether you should purchase an IPO is by analyzing the type of company the IPO represents. If you can find sufficient evidence supporting the fact that the business releasing the IPO is worth your money, consider it as an investment option. One of the easiest ways to understand the type of company that is being represented by an IPO is by analyzing the products and services the company is offering to the public.

There are other factors that occur behind the scenes that can be important to the value of an IPO. You should look into who is releasing the IPO to the public, for what reasons they selling the initial public offering to the public, and many other facts that may affect the overall value of the investment in the long-run.

If you put all of these different factors into the forefront of your thinking process as you analyze IPO investments, you will certainly be able to discern whether or not the investment you are considering is worth your current capital. If you discover that any of these factors do not provide sufficient evidence that the IPO is a valuable investment, you should consider placing your money elsewhere.

If, after you perform your IPO valuation, you discover that the company being represented by the IPO is a solid, stable, and growing company, consider it as a possible investment for expanding your portfolio.

There are many things to consider on how to IPO properly and legally. For more information about the IPO Prospectus, be sure to consult with the professionals.

Written by Adriana Noton on April 8th, 2010

Tagged with , , , , , , , , , ,

Options Trading Expiration Date Selection   no comments

Posted at 2:06 am in Business

There are strategies on whether to buy or sell in the money, at the money or out of the money options. There are questions of whether to be a buyer or seller, and to get puts or calls, and to be hedged or un-hedged. In addition, there’s also the question of WHEN to select the option. Do you select short term, or long term?

There are two views

One point of view is that you believe what Warren Buffet believes, and that’s that the pricing model is based too much on recent volatility, and that if you sell an option as far out in the future as possible when the volatility of the market/individual stock is at it’s peak, that with all things being equal, you will probably find that the volatility won’t return, and thus the buyer of the option is paying Too much. In addition, if you are Warren Buffet, you can depreciate your losses on paper, and use the sale of your options as capital to invest. If you are Warren Buffet, there’s a lot more value in having cash as you can achieve greater gains with that cash.

The other view is that long term options may cost more for volatility, but paying for 1 10 month option is cheaper then 10 1 month options at the same strike price. As a result, you should own long term options, and sell short term options, perhaps even with the same stock. If you buy a long term option, and sell short term, if at any given time, the price shoots up (and you sold short term calls), you can sell your long term option to pay for your short term option, then if you wish, repurchase the long term option and continue to write short term calls. You will continue to collect the theta.

I believe what Buffet believes to a certain extent. I believe that you should be a little concerned about the implied volatility and historical volatility. If a stock has had a lot of recent volatility, you should eventually expect that volatility to decline. If that does in fact happen, it may be more difficult to sell the value in calls to get your money back, but you still should. If you do not have the ability to borrow funds at the fed funds rate, or raise capital and so on, you will be better suited buying LEAPS and selling short term. That doesn’t necessarily mean both views can’t be correct. You could sell puts in times of high volatility in the S&P with European style options (must be held until expiration), and make money, or you could buy leap calls in that same period of time and make money. It’s even possible that you could also buy a put with the same expiration year (non European), and still sell enough short term puts to pay for it by then. I believe that buying short term options is the riskiest.

Well what if someone owns a stock and they write covered calls and the buyer actually does win. He will win more than he loses, the owner of the stock will forfeit his stock and lose a small amount, but where the heck does the money come from? The option buyer pays essentially a fee for the option, the option seller receives that fee, the option calls in the shares, and the share price is sold to someone who either paid too much for it, or someone who will eventually sell it to someone who paid too much for it. Someone will lose. However, it is possible for the option owners and option sellers to all win.

I would not want to be the one buying short term options, that requires expert knowledge about what is going to happen short term, or billions of dollars at your disposal to force the price of the stock up, and hope demand follows so you can win and still get out before people figure it out, or you could own a huge hedge fund or mutual fund and use that to try to chase a stock up higher while you sell out of that same stock. These are the kinds of games that can be played, which is why it wouldn’t make sense for someone who is smart enough and can figure stuff out to turn his money over to a mutual fund manager.

So it’s possible to make money as an option buyer and as a seller. The question is, does it fit with what you do, and do you know what you are doing?

Maclin Vestor teaches about stock market investment advice. You can even learn about finance, money management, and figuring out finance at his blog.

Does Your Trading System Have an Exit Strategy?   no comments

Posted at 8:54 am in Business

Many good trading systems use multiple exit strategies. In normal trading system, you need to know when to exit from a gain, and when to exit from a loss. Generally you want to be cutting your profits short, and letting your profits run. At a minimum, you generally want nearly a 3:1 gain to loss. This means you should take profits at 3 times the percentage amount as you cut your losses short. We will use this system and do the following

1) Exit stop at a 7% loss. This stop-loss should sell ALL of your shares. The simple method is to just set the stop and leave it. There are dangers of this because people may be able to see someone make the stop order on the floor, and if they have enough money, they can take advantage of that, selling lots of shares of the stock, pushing the stock price down below the stop, then forcing you and others who may have stops out, and then buying the stock below your price, so the stock will stop out, and then quickly rebound. The more advanced mode is to just watch it, and if it is going to CLOSE below your stop, only then will you exit 10 minutes or so before the markets close. The sophisticated way is to just not use stops, and instead buy puts. this increases the cost of the investment and thus limits your win, but you give up a fixed amount for protection against large losses.. This would insure that the stock doesn’t drop overnight. A failed breakout is signaled if a stock drops 7% below breakout point. If you are buying stocks on the pullbacks, a 7% drop should signify a breaking of support.

2) Set a profit target at 20%. You can use a limit sell order to sell here if you would like, particularly for those who don’t have the time to watch the stock. You should be willing to wait a full 4 months for it to hit it’s target. If it hits the target, you should sell 1/2 to 2/3rds of your shares, and let the rest ride. Also, if your stock hits the price target within 8 weeks (2 months), this signals that your stock is a good one, and you want to hold onto your winners. There is a simple strategy and a sophisticated strategy. The simple strategy is to hold onto your stock until the entire 8 weeks is up. The sophisticated strategy is to sell most or all of your shares, and convert them to an option that you should own at strike price, or very close to it. You should ensure that this transaction is such that in a worst case scenario, you still will have a 5% gain. Generally, you will own say 100shares, sell 100, and buy 1 call contract at the same strike price the stock is at, and secure a profit, while still maintaining the same upside leverage minus the cost of the option and the transaction.

3) Set a trailing stop of 25%. This should serve as a function primarily to exit the remaining 1/3rd to 1/2 of shares that you let ride after you hit your price target of 20%. It is possible that the stock goes up near your target, which will raise this stop to 5% below where you bought it, or if you aren’t using a limit sell, it could spike way up to up 35% from where you buy it, and then quickly come down, and sell out a small portion of your shares for a small gain. This is fine. In this case, either the stock will then proceed to drop below your buy point and go and hit the 7% stop-loss, or it will then bounce and gain until it hits your 20% target. In either case, you will sell the rest of your shares. Of course, if this all happens in a short amount of time, you may attempt a swap as a sophisticated strategy, but generally you should be done with it.

4) You should always keep records. Record how many you bought at what price and which exit(s) were triggered. You want to check all these stocks in a year, or so, and see if you could have made more by adjusting your stops, or adjusting the size of which you sell.

5) Enjoy the profits.

If you are a good system trader, you will make sure that they trading system you use has an excellent exit strategy. At System Trading|Stocks Trading Systems you will learn that an exit strategy will allow you make sure that you have a trading system with greater returns on your average gains than you have losses on your average losses. This is only one small aspect of a trading system but it is a very important one. In fact, your exit strategy will be vital in determining how much capital you allocate when managing your money in a trading system.

In addition, if you can find a stock selection vehicle in combination with a good exit strategy, it will insure that any given investment has a positive expected value. In other words, with a good exit strategy and stock selection that picks winners often enough, you will win more than you lose, provided you manage your money right. Learn these tips as a system trader, and you stand a much better chance at being a profitable trader than someone who does not understand the importance of a good exit strategy within a trading system.

About the Author: